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"Biden presided over a historic oil and gas production expansion and our research shows that his administration's energy policies fall short of U.S. climate goals," said Allie Rosenbluth of Oil Change International.
President Joe Biden claimed in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday that the U.S. was on track to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, in line with its Paris agreement commitment, leading progressive critics to say "not true."
Biden's claim came as part of his farewell UNGA address as president, in which he laid out his accomplishments over the past four years.
The Biden administration has helped pushed the U.S. closer to reaching the goal of reducing emissions 50-52% from 2005 levels by 2030, but progressive critics say it hasn't pushed nearly hard enough, pointing to increased oil and gas production.
There is no known data to support Biden's claim. Rhodium Group, a nonpartisan energy consultancy frequently cited by the White House, recently found that the U.S. was on track to lower emissions by 32-43% below 2005 levels by 2030—"not enough for the U.S. to achieve its 2030 climate commitment... or deep decarbonization by mid-century."
Allie Rosenbluth, U.S. program manager at Oil Change International, which has warned that Rhodium's projections may if anything slightly overstate forthcoming emissions reductions, said that "unfortunately" Biden's claim was "not true."
"Biden presided over a historic oil and gas production expansion and our research shows that his administration's energy policies fall short of U.S. climate goals," she said in a statement released after the U.N. speech.
Rhodium Group, an energy consultancy, released these projections in July 2024.
Biden, who was also scheduled to give a climate-focused speech at the Bloomberg Global Business Forum on Tuesday afternoon, has called the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 "the most significant climate legislation in the history of the world." The law did move the needle. Before it was passed, Rhodium's projections were for a 24-35% reduction in emissions by 2030.
However, progressives have argued that moving the needle further will require addressing corporate power. Kate Aronoff laid out the case in The New Republic on Tuesday:
Meeting our Paris agreement pledge would mean not just building on the modest progress made so far to invest in zero-carbon energy but adopting an altogether more confrontational approach overall. There's no way to limit electricity demand from data centers—fueled by Silicon's Valley rush into [artificial intelligence] and cryptocurrency—without placing constraints on their appetite for unchecked, unnecessary expansion.
Aronoff argued that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, had shown no willingness to take such a confrontational approach, and was in fact going in the opposite direction.
"Harris pledged nearly the opposite this week on the campaign trail, vowing to help boost investment in AI and crypto if elected," Aronoff wrote. "Like Biden, she's also made keeping gasoline prices low central to her energy agenda, and boasted about its efforts to expand oil and gas production as an unalloyed good."
Just maintaining one of Rhodium's currently projected pathways is no given. The low emissions pathway laid out by the consultancy, leading to a 43% reduction, would require a lot of factors "breaking the right way," Aronoff wrote.
And that would only be possible if Harris won. Republican nominee Donald Trump would likely roll back a great deal of climate laws and regulations, increasing emissions above current projections, according to multiple analyses released by consultancies this year.
For now, Biden remains the president, and Rosenbluth of Oil Change International kept the focus on him and his legacy: "What President Biden does in the last months of his administration will determine his climate legacy. The clock is ticking for the Biden administration and for our planet."
The UNGA climate agenda includes discussions on a target, made at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai last year, to triple global renewable energy capacity. The International Energy Agency released a report this week indicating the goal was within reach.
A more contentious issue on the agenda is climate financing. Global South countries are disproportionately impacted by climate change, but rich nations have been unwilling to agree to a meaningful financing deal. The financing discussions are set to continue until the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan in November.
Rosenbluth said Biden needed to "pay up" and the U.S. was not paying its "fair share."
"The consequences of U.S. fossil fuel production are felt across the world in devastating storms, fires, and droughts," she said. "As the world's wealthiest country, largest producer and exporter of oil and gas, and biggest historical emitter, the United States has a moral and practical responsibility to finance a full, fast, funded, and fair phaseout of fossil fuels globally."
"The real question isn't whether we can afford to act, but whether we can afford not to."
Research published Tuesday estimates that rich countries could mobilize over $5 trillion a year for climate action worldwide by cutting off subsidies to the oil and gas industry, imposing a levy on big polluters, and cracking down on tax evasion by large corporations and the rich.
The new report from Oil Change International (OCI) was released as world leaders gathered in New York City for high-level United Nations General Assembly talks, a meeting that comes less than two months before the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan.
OCI's research, which includes a fact sheet outlining various proposals to raise funds for climate action, stresses that "there is no shortage of public money available for rich countries to pay their fair share on fair terms for climate action at home and abroad."
"The urgency and extent of growing economic inequality, unfair sovereign debt crises, climate disasters, and fossil fuel profits have created significant momentum towards many of these measures in international and domestic policy spheres," OCI's research brief notes. "Finance has been in the spotlight in most major international political fora in the past few years in recognition that our current financial architecture is a major driver of these overlapping crises."
Among the proposals laid out in OCI's brief are an equitable end to "public finance, direct subsidies, and state-owned company investments in fossil fuels," which could raise $846 billion a year globally; a "climate damages tax" on fossil fuel extraction, which could raise $618 billion a year; a 25% minimum corporate tax rate, which could raise $479 billion annually; and a wealth tax on billionaires, which could raise roughly $2.60 trillion a year in the Global North and over $5.6 trillion worldwide.
Laurie van der Burg, OCI's public finance lead, said that the rich nations most responsible for the climate emergency "owe this money to Global South countries that have not caused this crisis and need fair finance to deliver strong climate plans next year that phase out fossil fuels."
"This is essential to avoid climate breakdown and save lives," she added.
The clock is ticking ⏰ Rich nations must deliver a roadmap for at least $1 TRILLION/year by 2025. No more empty promises. It's time to pay up for a just transition! 💚
Read the full report: https://t.co/eKwm0zXits pic.twitter.com/4qjTO5JQ8c
— Oil Change International (@PriceofOil) September 24, 2024
The COP29 climate summit will take place a year after nations agreed at COP28 to transition "away from fossil fuels in energy systems" in a "just, orderly, and equitable manner."
The success of that pledge, OCI said, depends on rich nations contributing massively to global climate finance after years of falling short of their pledges and continuing to expand fossil fuel extraction and handouts. Worldwide, environmentally harmful subsidies—including fossil fuel subsidies—have surged to $2.6 trillion a year, according to a report released last week.
"Global North countries have a responsibility to redirect their share of these subsidies in support of climate action," OCI said Tuesday.
The new report comes on the heels of a record-hot summer and amid devastating extreme weather, from massive flooding across Europe and Africa to wildfires in South America.
Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, said Tuesday that "the real question isn't whether we can afford to act, but whether we can afford not to."
"It is a bitter irony that rich nations hide behind claims of fiscal restraint, yet trillions are still spent on fossil fuel subsidies and militarization," said Sieber. "The truth is simple: the money exists, but the political will does not. By treating climate finance as a zero-sum game, wealthy countries not only deepen global inequality but also undermine their own futures."
"The energy transition isn't charity—it's an investment in global stability and security," Sieber added. "Ignoring the need for support only worsens the climate crisis, which knows no borders."
"The Fair Share NDC is more than just a pledge, it is a road map for how the U.S. can prevent the coming catastrophe," said one campaigner.
A coalition of climate campaigners on Tuesday published a proposal "for how the U.S. can play a bigger role in tackling the global climate emergency."
Described as "a civil society model document for the U.S. climate action pledge submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" under the landmark Paris agreement, the Fair Share Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is a "comprehensive plan for the United States to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance climate action in an equitable way both domestically and internationally."
Russell Armstrong, international policy liaison at the U.S. Climate Action Network, a member of the coalition, explained that "the Fair Share NDC is more than just a pledge, it is a road map for how the U.S. can prevent the coming catastrophe."
The plan sets targets for the U.S. to slash domestic carbon dioxide emissions by 80% by 2035 from 2005 levels, in line with "scientific standards and universally accepted global justice principles."
Allie Rosenbluth, U.S. program manager at coalition member Oil Change International, said: "The U.S. has a long way to go to become the climate leader the world needs. It's the largest producer of oil and gas in human history, and it plans to expand fossil fuels far beyond what's compatible with a livable climate."
"The Fair Share NDC shows what the U.S. must do to change course, starting with an equitable phaseout of fossil fuels and paying its fair share to the countries dealing with the consequences of U.S. extraction," she added.
The proposal is centered on a phased approach to ending all fossil fuel production, with coal to be eliminated by the end of the decade and oil and gas by 2031. The plan also proposes the development of "robust public transportation infrastructure and transitioning to 100% clean energy by 2030."
"This transition will also be fair, funded, feminist, and equitable," the report states. "A funded fossil fuel phaseout means that wealthy Global North countries commit to paying their fair share for fossil fuel phaseout in their own countries and in the Global South. A feminist fossil fuel phaseout means a gender-just energy transition from an extractive, fossil-fueled economy to a regenerative, care-based economy that sustains life and well-being for all."
According to Oil Change International:
The U.S.' historic emissions are so large that the U.S. cannot mitigate enough emissions domestically to fulfill its "fair share" of responsibility for the climate crisis. It must also provide Global South countries annually with $106 billion in mitigation funding and $340 billion worth of adaptation and loss and damage funding by 2030. To mobilize money on such a scale, the U.S. can redirect funding for fossil fuel subsidies and military weaponry, and make wealthy elites and big polluters pay for the damages they've already caused. Finally, changing global rules on debt, taxes, trade, and technology will also significantly expand the fiscal space Global South countries have to finance their own transitions, lowering the overall bill.
The report warns that the U.S. must commit "to avoiding dangerous distractions and unproven technological solutions, such as
forest offsets; carbon market mechanisms; carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, enhanced oil recovery, and other false solutions that act as dangerous distractions to only delay phasing out of fossil fuel production."
Tuesday is False Solutions Day during the Global Week of Action for Climate Finance and a Fossil-Free Future, which runs from September 13-20 and focuses on pressuring Global North governments to "stop making empty promises" and "cease pandering to corporations to perpetuate fossil fuels."
Basav Sen, climate policy director at the Institute for Policy Studies, a member of the coalition, said in a statement that "the U.S. is the world's largest oil and gas producer and largest cumulative greenhouse gas emitter."
"It's time the U.S. took responsibility for its outsized role in causing the climate crisis," Sen added. "The Fair Share NDC is a pathway for the U.S. to actually become the climate leader it claims to be, both internationally and at home."